The named entities and projects do not represent recommendations to buy or sell, or in any way intended to reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is a reasoned forecast of future asset performance vs the market. What is presented attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each asset, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of asset platforms. Charts of technical price levels and movements are presented to educate those unfamiliar with price patterns. These examples of real price activity show how prior price levels may be used to identify market points of price resistance or support. Use this information as you see fit, but it is recommended that you see this as an educational/informative tool only. This information is only part of the array of focus areas needed in making any investment decision, accordingly, it is best to not rely on one type of analysis for your capital allocation decisions.
The Radar Fund is an actively managed portfolio of crypto-assets. Presently there are 101 company tokens within the Fund plus three crypto currency assets in the form of Bitcoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin. The investments in crypto-assets began in 2014, and in 2019 the Radar Fund was formed to hold these Crypto-assets. On a daily basis decisions are made to increase or decrease individual holdings, and to add new holdings when business initiatives are found to have promise for future success.
October 17, 2020 Radar Fund Share Price since inception by month
October 17, 2020 tracking of price volatility for BTC, ETH and LTC shows we are at a point of very low price movement. This is typically a precursor to a major move in price. Be ready.
October 17, 2020 The many charts reflected below indicate a positive to neutral stance. My interpretation is more bullish than bearish, and as such I have been adding to BTC, ETH and various other Crypto-asset platforms. The priority platforms for me are: BNB, Link, Cel, Qnt, Aave, Poly, YFI, HNT, IOTA, SC, SNX, STX and ZIL. If you would like to know more about why these are my current focus for adding to the Radar Fund, drop me an email and I will respond.
Red and Green columns correspond to the same month in the prior years
October 9, 2020 Market Value and Trading Volume appear to have found a bottom and are now rising
Wallet growth is steady for both Bitcoin and Ether. Comparisons of September 2020 to prior Septembers (Green), and comparisons of October 2020 to prior Octobers (Red) show meaningful expansion of new account activity.
Oct 6, 2020 the snapshot of total market value vs daily trading volume offers a clue of the state of the market. Total value is holding above the prior point of resistance in an environment where trading volume has evaporated. The activity level is back to where we were before the last price breakout higher. This portends that another meaningful price move is not too far away as there is plenty of “dry powder” waiting to be deployed. There is also a meaningful size of HODLING in place which on a price break lower could flood the market with selling and a fall in prices to a new real buying opportunity level. Which way do you think it will go? Last year at this time we saw price weakness dominate the fourth quarter. With the gains realized in 2020 will holders be reluctant to sell and encounter tax liabilities? or are there enough buyers at the recent top that tax loss selling may dominate this thinly traded environment? That is the puzzle for you to think about. If you want my thoughts, drop me a line and I will respond.
Growth in BTC and ETH wallets continues to demonstrate adoption and deeper penetration across the globe. Note the September to September comparisons of each year (in red).
The technical bounce of the total Crypto Market value off of the $318 billion level up to the $338 Billion level is a classic example of technical support and resistance. Right now, Crypto needs to break decisively above $340 Billion to prompt new investment in what would be a breakout to much higher price levels. Watch this closely.
For the past two weeks the Crypto market has been churning with no leadership being displayed on a consistent basis. On some days Ether shows strength, then gives it back, followed by BTC strength, that then fades, followed by some Alt coin leaders, that again cannot sustain clear strength. These are discomforting signs. Below are two charts that more or less speak to the mixed messages. In one we see the market value of all Crypto assets falling precipitously from their recent highs, bouncing off of a point of support and now sitting at resistance that it must get through to confirm a sustainable move to higher prices in the interim time frame. In the other chart, the summation of the 100 prices of tokens that comprise the Radar Fund (ex currencies) is trending lower and is at a point of support that must hold if there is a continuing commitment to the market at current prices. The debate rages on as to what is next, and this is a short-to medium term time horizon. Longer term, HODLING is the the only path to embrace for believers like myself in the adoption and evolution of Blockchain technology and Crypto-assets.
September 2, 2020 Based on the chart below showing the decline today reaching a point of support, I purchased some BTC and ETH at the point of support. We will see if it holds.
August 30, 2020 I have been away from writing this past week as my work on Staking and my involvement in some family projects have taken precedence. On the Staking front, there are a number of options that earn 20% or more per year and they are too inviting to not pursue. I will write more on this later. Have a great day
August 19, 2020 The Crypto market has lost $17 billion of value over the past two days. For some that must feel like an ouch! The price declines are broad based and across the spectrum, as we run up against the price resistance for BTC in the $12.000 area, and the significant gains in Alt coins enable traders to capture meaningful profits.
The overall internals remain positive as the charts below show.
August 15, 2020 Bitcoin 10 Day Avg Price and Volume Traded The 10-Day average price is at a critical juncture. It is up against its prior intermediate high and could find it difficult to break above. Based on all of the underlying metrics, I believe it will break this resistance but may have some short-term difficulty doing so.
August 15, 2020 compared to August 12, 2020 change in ROI multiple for Radar Fund owned Tokens >100% when compared to June 12, 2020
August 14, 2020 Market Capitalization and Daily Trading Volume of the Crypto Asset Sector
August 12, 2020 The high returns realized by the Radar Fund are driven by many companies/platforms. The assets realizing returns in excess of 100% during the period June 12, 2020 and August 12, 2020 are as follows:
One of the amazing things about the Radar Fund performance is overcoming the laggards that were Crypto darlings in 2018. Ripple or XRP is the poster child. The investments made over time in XRP when compared to the performance of BTC and ETH is stunning. XRP has underperformed BTC and ETH such that it is 80% negative from an ROI perspective against its cost measured in the BTC and ETH used to acquire XRP tokens. When I listen to Brad Garlinghouse talk about the promise of XRP all I can do is shake my head. There is no justification at this time to commit any new capital to this underperforming asset. It may in the end be an ugly duckling that turns into a Swan, but there are better choices in the market today and it would be foolish to ignore them.
August 9, 2020 Charts that should make you think about what level of involvement Crypto will have in our future
BTC steady and consistent growth differs from prior periods and it is the consistency that I value. Continued growth in BTC ownership by an ever expanding ownership base is very meaningful.
Institutional participation continues to increase as evidenced by the growth in Open Interest on the Futures Market. This is the preferred arena for Hedge Funds and other larger participants.
The diversified use of the Ethereum Blockchain and the ever expanding APPs being built on the ETH Blockchain is evidenced by the accelerating growth in ETH Addresses/Wallets. The most dominant sector is the Defi and CeFi Apps that are changing the way we bank and invest. The better returns offered by financial platforms on Ethereum should continue to drive adoption and participation by the retail and institutional investors.
July 31, 2020 The analyses I perform are all aligned for a significant price move higher. One of my most coveted and privately developed buy/sell signals for Ether has just flashed the strongest buy signal, this being the third one in a row. The first came on July 22, 2020 when Ether closed at $264.28. The second Buy signal came on July 25, 2020 when Ether closed at $305.66. Yesterday, another Buy signal was revealed at a price of $335.31. To give you an idea of how important I view this signal, consider that since November 2017, there have only been a total of 47 of these Buy Signals for Ether over these past 1,000 days. It is a very strong and infrequent signal. This signal is driven by price movements and is proprietary. Bitcoin has additionally given a single Buy signal of this type in July which came on July 27, 2020. The presence and in the case of ETH, the persistence of the signal is a powerful measure of strength based on the historic data I incorporate into my analyses.
July 28, 2020 A picture of the breakout of new highs for Bitcoin and Ether shows a consolidation and holding pattern that was exceeded this week.
July 27, 2020 This Link is to a discussion document I wrote for those new to or thinking about this industry sector
July 27, 2020 The price strength in Bitcoin and Ether is creating an undertow for the other Crypto Blockchain tokens. During the prior month, the 7-day average number of token platforms that outperformed BTC and ETH was 53.2%. Presently it is 35.2%, indicating roughly 65% of the tokens are under-performing the price gains in BTC and ETH. A clear rotation out of Alt Coins into the Crypto-Currencies.
The current view of the Crypto Market Cap and daily trading volume
Today, July 26, 2020 is my baby-brother’s 60th birthday. I will be out visiting his cemetery plot and enjoying love and memories shared with Bobby, Billy and Dad.
July 26, 2020 there are many strong and correlated positives for this price move higher in BTC and ETH. It is interesting to see the sell-off this AM in other platforms that rallied into this Crypto-currency strength and now give back a small portion of previous price gains as BTC and ETH rise. This is all healthy and sound action. Closed some leveraged ETH positions at $310 this morning, as the saying goes, bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. Still long in all respects, but harvesting some gains is always a good think to do in a rising market.
July 23, 2020 The breadth of the price advance is very impressive. Companies/Platforms across the business spectrum are advancing. While the media focus in on DeFi and CeFi, rightly so, the demand for other business platforms is very evident. As an example, research Travala (“AVA”). Over the past month, this travel booking service on the blockchain is up 3X. It is one of my favorite long-term holdings. Blockchain technology is expanding into all services and supply chain platforms.
I still have a concern with overall volume being traded on the Spot Market, as it remains very low. On the Futures market, Open interest is expanding and is very supportive of increased investment activity in this sector
July 21, 2020 Open Interest for Ether Futures
July 21, 2020 Total Crypto Market Capitalization and Daily Trading Volume in Billions of USD
July 17, 2020 The grid below should demonstrate the value of allocating capital to the best projects/platforms. An evenly balanced investment strategy would have a Y-T-D return of 56.79% for the Radar Fund. This demonstrates the power of diversification into individual projects vs simply holding Bitcoin, which has a Y-T-D return of 27.73%. Returns are further beneficially impacted by disproportionate allocations of capital into the individual platforms such that the best receive more capital than others. The Radar Fund actual Y-T-D return based on selective investing of capital is 110.10%.
July 17, 2020 Radar Fund Y-T-D, Month and bi-weekly return as if only 1 token in each of the 95 companies were owned
July 17, 2020 I remain concerned by the lack of volume in trading of Bitcoin and Ether. We really are at the bottom of historic trading activity.
July 15, 2020 Top 15 Holdings excluding Bitcoin, Ether and LiteCoin
July 8, 2020 Average Weekly Wallet/Address growth for Ethereum hits a 2020 high.
July 8, 2020 The Open Interest in Ether Futures is demonstrating significant activity by institutional investment firms.
July 7, 2020 The growth in Wallets/Addresses continues
July 6, 2020 I expect a large price move higher in the near term
July 3, 2020 The trading volume in Bitcoin and Ether is extremely low. Additionally, the volatility in price is also at a low point. Combined these two data points indicate we are close to a significant move in both price and volume. The price move from this data could be up or down, but make no mistake the current levels have historically been the launching pad.
Bitcoin Daily Volume Nov 2017 thru July 3, 2020
The Market Data is inconclusive at this point in time. The price data is above the recent trendlines but is stagnant moving sideways. The 200-Day moving averages are positive, with the 50-Day above the 200-Day MVA, but the 50-Day is moving sideways over the past couple of weeks. The BTC price has reached the bottom upward sloping line for the current price relative to the 50-Day MVA. This would point to a time when it would not be unreasonable to expect a move higher bouncing off of this trendline.
The crypto-currencies are directionless at the moment. Enough data is there to make me buy ETH, particularly the continued expansion of wallet/address growth.
But the neutral growth in Open Interest in the Futures Market coupled with the lack of price direction make this a time of waiting. My guess is that we move higher from here, but it is no more than a guess based on semi-positive information.
July 2, 2020 It is interesting to note that the Radar Fund is approaching its all time high price. Yet, the last time this price was reached, Bitcoin was priced at $13,500. Obviously, the growth in the overall industry is developing at a meaningful pace that is being reflected in the non-currency crypto-assets. That is a very healthy fact, and likely is now the leading indicator of where prices are headed. I expect that Bitcoin and Ether will play catch-up in a steady and methodical way.
For June 2020, the Ethereum blockchain is poised to post the highest monthly growth in wallets/addresses over the past 29 months.
Celsius is a real stand-out this week. While it is number 3 in price performance within the Radar Fund, it is important to note that over the past seven days it is the number one price gainer against its acquisition cost as funded by Bitcoin and Ether.
When comparing the cost of acquisition at Fair Value vs the Current market price, the Celsius token is the leader of the Radar Fund. Fair Value of cost represents the current price of the historic number of Bitcoin and Ether used to purchase CEL tokens for the Radar Fund. This real-time comparison of cost and price at FMV indicates whether one would have been better off holding Bitcoin and Ether vs buying CEL. CEL is the clear winner, performing 1.71X better than the BTC/ETH cost of acquisition over the past seven-days.
Below, under June 27, 2020, I discuss some additional information about the company Celsius. One of the comparisons that should be considered is the specific Celsius policy pertaining to the interest paid to depositors. While lending activity is very much driven by demand from borrowers, and that demand directly impacts the rates charged to borrowers, the payout by Celsius to its depositors is tied directly to the Celsius lending rate, paying out 80% of the revenue from lending to depositors. This is the most favorable construct in the market. Competitors retain greater percentages of the lending revenues resulting in lower payout rates to depositors. It is important to research the activities of other DeFi and CeFi enterprises to ensure you are maximizing your returns. Further, the goal of Celsius to bring the first 100 million people to the new world of crypto banking may very well accelerate as consumers become more aware of the returns possible that exceed traditional banking institutions. Additional demand for Celsius will impact the value of the CEL token and the CEL equity. This is an important enterprise to watch closely and to proactively share news of its progress and positive differential returns for people’s savings and for borrowing at very competitive rates. Clearly this is one to watch!
June 27, 2020
There is a disturbance in the Force. The past few weeks have seen Bitcoin and Ether churning up and down within what appears to be a range bound band. As I write this they are at the low end of the band. Around them there is so much action. As I noted in my recent prior posts, the DeFi sector has been on fire. Many coins are seeing dramatic price increases, and not all of these coins are deserving of the price appreciation.
Atomic Wallet has doubled in price since June 12th.
Switcheo is up 130% since June 12th.
Compound rose 7X since its introduction on June 15th.
Celsius is up 77% since June 12th.
KNC, SNX, and many others have been flying.
Today, I supplied BAT to the Compound site as they were offering 23% interest on BAT deposits.
These type of extreme moves are not normal and usually end in tears for those that buy after the rise has already occurred. Be careful out there.
Having said this, I believe in the DeFi sector and believe it is the game changer for crypto in terms of market penetration and use, and so it deserves an important place in my portfolio.
Of particular note at the moment is the company Celsius. I have followed and invested in this company’s tokens since its inception. A great CEO with a long history of technology development and success is changing the banking paradigm that we have lived with for so many years.
Celsius operates across the globe, offering favorable interest rates on deposits of Crypto, in many cases the best in the industry. Their business platform is unique, paying depositors 80% of the interest they collect on loans made. They are an integral part of the Hedge Fund industry, supplying Hedge Funds with access to leverage in the crypto market. They also enable fiat owners to convert fiat to Stable coins such as Tether, and to deposit Tether and other Stable Coins with Celsius to earn interest rates above what the traditional banking world offers on fiat deposits. According to their website they have paid over $14 million in interest since their inception.
In addition to their token, which is used to pay premium interest rates to depositors, they are in the midst of an equity raise for the purpose of building out and accelerating their business development and marketing. The equity raise is a private placement offering, subject to restrictions and regulations promulgated by the SEC for US investors. Only Accredited Investors may participate in the U.S.
Celsius is looking to raise between $15 and $30 million from investors across the globe. I believe that if successful this additional capital will enable Celsius to expand more rapidly and to lead the DeFi industry into the mainstream of traditional Finance with a platform that just may change banking and finance forever. Stay tuned and pay attention here.
I have written in the past about asset selection as a way to maximize returns vs buying an equal weighted basket of tokens. To once again make this point, I want to compare the Y-T-D return of the 94 tokens held within the Radar Fund on an equal weighted basis vs the differential allocation of funds to the most promising projects within the Radar Fund. To date, the equal weighted portfolio would have returned 26.78% through June 27, 2020. The Radar Fund’s Y-T-D return, comprised of the same tokens but with unequal levels of investment in individual tokens, is 76.01%. Selecting where and how to allocate your investment funds is more important than simply participating in the crypto sector.
The cross-currents are dominant. Very low volume is troublesome. Open interest in futures is expanding in a positive manner. Wallet growth is consistent and particularly for ETH is very positive. I will post a good amount of information today, so stay tuned.
The recent strong performance of the Radar Fund has been driven by continued growth in the DeFi sector. The performance of KNC, SNX, and CEL has been exceptional. Add to that the rise in AWC, Link and QNT and the gains are very meaningful. If BNB catches fire the performance will likely lead to a 2020 gain in excess of 100%. I continue to trim and add as new information becomes available. The sector is in a good place, with continued investment by the more traditional enterprises coming into the Crypto sector.
As to BTC, the daily price broke the downward trend, but since has been treading water.
FYI, I staked AWC tokens today to earn 20% per annum on staked AWC through their Wallet. The tokens must be on the Binance chain, not the Ethereum chain, so it requires conversion of AWC Ethereum chain tokens that were purchased to AWC Binance tokens. This can be done through the Change Now platform.
There has been a fair amount of press by “influencers” about AltCoins being “ShitCoins” and not worthy of ownership except for the Fear of Missing Out crowd who get “Rekked” by buying these coins or tokens. I feel obliged to point out that this is nonsense. Let me explain why.
Within the Radar Fund there are 94 company/platform tokens other than BTC, ETH and LTC. BTC and ETH have been used to purchase the 94 tokens. On a daily basis I calculate the cost of the 94 tokens on a current market value basis of BTC and ETH. This means that the cost of the individual tokens changes with the price of BTC and ETH. Comparing the cost at current prices vs the market value of the individual tokens at current prices informs me whether I would have been better off keeping everything in BTC and ETH vs using BTC and ETH to buy the other tokens. That daily analysis on this date, June 10, 2020, shows that the weighting of the investments in the 94 tokens has yielded greater price appreciation than if the USD originally invested in BTC and ETH had stayed in BTC and ETH. “ShitCoin”? I do not think so.
There are tea leaves swirling in the cup today. Weakness is the theme and I am trying to discern why. First, what is the weakness I see at 7:46 PM on June 5, 2020?
1) For the day the Radar Fund tokens truly underperformed BTC and ETH. Only 42% of the Radar Fund tokens performed better, with 52% below and 6% unchanged.
2) The sum of aggregate gains in price for the 93 non-currency tokens over the past seven-days is half of what it was yesterday. Clearly there is a pause occurring in the price advance across the spectrum and if it persists, then the positive move of late may be coming to an exhaustion ending.
June 4, 2020 Best Daily Price performers vs Bitcoin and Ether
June 4, 2020 Best seven-day Price performers vs Bitcoin and Ether
June 4, 2020 Best Price performers within the Radar Fund over the past seven days
June 4, 2020 Top 15 holdings by Asset value within the Radar Fund
The dramatic and fast drop in the price of BTC and ETH earlier this week was quite impressive. Stability appears to have been found in the $9,400 -$9,500 area for BTC and in the $230 – $240 area for ETH. Interestingly, 73% of the Radar Fund tokens are performing better than BTC and ETH. That is encouraging.
June 1,2020 The crypto assets appear to have been building a new base from which to move higher from. The breadth of the 93 tokens moving higher, then retracing a bit, and then consolidating around higher lows is apparent from the data I am looking at. This could be a headfake with lower prices in the future, but I do not think so. The behavior appears to be wide spread and as a market seems to be readying itself for a new advance from current levels. Stay tuned and aware, watch the action beyond Bitcoin and Ether (we need them to participate too, but the base building to be relied upon should include the broader market).
May 29, 2020 as of 4:00 PM EST, 59% of the Radar Fund tokens are higher in price as compared to yesterday, May 28, 2020. The biggest mover is Maker (“MKR”), as Coinbase announced today that they would list MKR on their exchange platform. The comparison of all Radar Fund tokens up 4% or more today are listed below, as is the movement in Bitcoin and Ether.
This is a partial list of the Radar Fund tokens, showing today’s opening prices and past week’s $ volume traded.
A very pleasing day on May 28, 2020, as the Radar Fund Y-T-D return exceeds 50% for the first time this year.
And look at the two of them, BTC and ETH, both having the “Golden Cross” of the 50-Day MVA moving above the 200-Day MVA. Very bullish.
Looking at the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages, we see that the 50-Day has turned upwards and is targeting the cross-over point with the 200-Day. It is also clear that the trend of the current price has moved across and is maintaining a positive spread over the 200-Day MVA. These are all positive signs.
A closer look at BTC using the 10-Day Price and Volume metrics shows that both Price and Volume have turned northwards.
A breakout above $10,000 and the long-term downtrend would be broken.
From a Daily price perspective, we are at that point of addressing the long-term trend. Since late 2017 we have been on a downward trajectory for BTC. Over the past, we have not been able to break above this price trend. Will we now? The strength behind BTC is growing. I would like to see greater acceleration in more metrics, but the steady build of the foundation continues.
Adding to the picture of positive trends, consider the growth in BTC Wallets, and then the growth in the Open Interest of BTC Futures:
ETH continues to build a solid foundation across many metrics. Will the price curve be validated with a continued rise in ETH’s price?
I must add a word of caution here in regard to price changes that are meaningful and those that are not. Large price moves are insufficient to make investment or trading decisions on. You must look at the volume that accompanies the price move. I have seen too many times where a large percentage change in price draws buyers or sellers into the asset, only to be disappointed when the move reverses as it was based on thin trading volume with no real commitment to the asset. You should look at the volume in KNC and LINK.