July 2020 TJ Connolly’s thoughts on Bitcoin, Crypto, Blockchain, Banking, and a New Industry

July 27, 2020 This Link is to a discussion document I wrote for those new to or thinking about this industry sector

July 2020 Crypto thoughts

The recent move of investment capital into the Crypto sector is evidenced by the growth in Market Capitalization and Daily Trading Volume

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Crypto Assets in the Current Environment

July 7, 2020 UPDATE

The groundwork has been being laid for a significant move in prices. Over the past 24 hours the direction of that move in prices is becoming very clear to me. We are in my judgement going much higher in prices. I have been aggressively buying over the past 48 hours, with a particular concentration over the past 24 hours. My holdings YTD in Crypto are up 117% since December 31, 2019. The price movement is across the board, with DeFi and CeFi leading the charge. The currencies should follow suit. I am particularly focused in the currency sector on Ethereum. I expect a large price change here, greater than what I expect for Bitcoin.

From JULY 6, 2020

I typically focus on Crypto under the Radar Fund menu tab. Today, I believe it important enough to write a bit on Bitcoin, Ether, and other token assets that represent the DeFi sector of the Blockchain and Crypto Industry on the Main Page of this website.

Bitcoin and Ether have been treading water lately. Price moves have been relatively confined to a range that results in the lowest level of 10-Day price volatility that I have seen since 2017. Additionally, the daily unit volume of Bitcoin and Ether traded on exchanges is very low, approaching the lowest daily levels since 2017.

We are very close to a breakout in prices. The key indicators, impacted by the action on July 6, 2020, are strongly indicating higher prices. This could be a consistent and progressive move higher across the spectrum of Crypto Assets.

The overall market cap of the Crypto universe is presently $256 Billion. The daily trading activity is in the $30-$38 billion area.

In this relatively calm seemingly uneventful market sector there is significant movement in a sub-sector that is striking. It is the DeFi sector, or Decentralized Finance. This industry sector is developing rapidly, and recently investors have taken notice. Price appreciation in companies focused on this area is rewarding investors with meaningful returns. For example, consider the following:

1) The company Celsius is a new world banking enterprise. The company in a simple form accepts deposits of Crypto assets, such as Bitcoin and Ether (accepts many other crypto assets as well). Based on market demand for borrowing these crypto assets, an interest rate for loans is determined. Celsius pays its depositors 80% of the interest earned on lending activities. The interest rates being earned by these depositors is greater than 10 times the rates being earned in US $ deposits at traditional lending institutions. This business model has resulted in Celsius paying out the equivalent of $24+ million in interest to its depositors, lending activity of $6 billion, with $630 million in deposits. The value of the Celsius token was available for purchase at 3.5 US cents a couple of years back. Today it is prices at $.40+ cents. Since March, 2020, it has increased in value from 6.5 cents to its current value. Presently, Celsius is doing a Private Placement of a portion of its equity and has $15.7 million committed. https://app.bnktothefuture.com/pitches/celsius-network

2) Compound recently issued its token at approx. $50 per token. Compound represents a similar platform to Celsius, enabling the lending or borrowing of crypto assets. Supplying tokens as a depositor earns market rate interest as determined by the lending rate to borrowers. Somewhat different than Celsius, the payout by Compound is not set at 80% of the borrowing rate and may therefore exhibit different rates of return than Celsius. The Compound token zoomed 7X upon its issuance moving from $50 to $350. Presently the Compound token is priced at $203.

3) Kyber Network is one of the earliest Token Swap platforms. This enterprise and its CEO have been a favorite of mine since the company’s inception. Unlike a Centralized Exchange the KNC platform does not hold your assets. You connect your wallet to Kyber, designate the token you wish to use for an exchange from your wallet and the token you wish to receive from the KNC Swap technology and that is broadcast over the blockchain and filled. KNC assembles the bid and ask prices across multiple exchanges to deliver a fair market value to you in the exchange process. The speed and security of this platform make this one of my favorite platforms for building The Radar Fund portfolio.

4) Synthetix

5) Switcheo