Bitcoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin appear ready to move out of their range bound pricing

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.  Charts of technical price levels and movements are presented to educate those unfamiliar with price patterns.  These examples of real price activity show how prior price levels may be used to identify market points of price resistance or support. Use this information as you see fit, but it is recommended that you see this as an educational/informative tool only. This information is only part of the array of focus areas needed in making any investment decision, accordingly, it is best to not rely on one type of analysis for your capital allocation decisions.

The coiled spring

My interpretation of the data for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin leads me to believe that we are very close to a significant price move. As a bit of background, I love to analyze things, whether it is life, human behavior, a chess board, stocks, or crypto-assets, I take great pleasure in thinking deeply and finding solutions that make the puzzles of my life sensible and enjoyable.

Watching the behavior of the Crypto-currencies in the context of their aggressive move higher in price during May through June of this year, followed by a decline and a leveling off during July through September, the time appears to be at hand where a new base has been laid from which the next period of growth may be at hand.

Bitcoin is now at a point where it is range bound between $9,500 and $10,500. The interesting thing about this is that the volume of Bitcoin traded has reached a relatively low level, a level that coincided with the December 15, 2018 closing price low of $3,183, yet we are trading within a band that is three times higher in price than that December low. The market is telling us that the base price is now reset to this range of $9,000 to $11,000. The move away from this will occur at higher volume and I believe at higher price points vs lower price points. The chart of this price and volume comparison appears as follows:

Bitcoin Price and Volume Chart

BTC, ETH and LTC at a crossroads

Price, Volume, Market Value and Volatility point to a significant move

Below are three charts that are telling a similar story. Before I go there, it is very interesting to find that the combined Market Value of BTC, ETH, and LTC as of September 6, 2019 is roughly equivalent to the mkt value on November 28, 2017 ($216 billion and $215 billion, respectively). If you remember, on that date in 2017 BTC was at $9,949, ready to move to almost $20,000 over the next month. Be ready for a breakout.

The three charts show:

1) A decline in volatility to a point that historically has preceded subsequent large price moves.

2) In a continuing uptrend, the Bitcoin price is at a low point when compared to the 200 Day Moving Average Price.

3) The 10 day Average Bitcoin Price and Volume for Bitcoin show a continuing uptrend during this current basing period.

BTC, ETH,and LTC Volatility under 2%

BTC Price vs 200 Day Moving Average

Ten day Average Price and Volume for Bitcoin

BTC and ETH price declines a lack of buyers with few sellers?

For BTC and ETH pay attention to price and volume

The BTC price has been falling for 30 days (with BTC avg daily vol on Coinbase =15,600 and an avg price of $10,500 ) . Prior to that the price was rising for the preceding 30 days (with BTC avg DV on Coinbase = 27,312 and avg price of $11,000). Same observation for ETH. Implication is that the recent weakness in prices is more of buyers on the sidelines while a small group of sellers have to raise fiat (maybe those facing margin calls on both equities and crypto needing liquidity to meet the MC).

We are on the cusp of accelerated Blockchain growth and adoption by industries and consumers

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market, and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.

May 20, 2019

Dear Crypto enthusiast and/or curious mind:

Right now is the most exciting time for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Blockchain based businesses. The market is expanding with established corporations joining the start-ups and early believers. I am as enthusiastic as I have ever been. I truly believe we are on the cusp of a rapid expansion of participants and education within the Blockchain sphere.

Over the past eight weeks I have heard speak or met with the co-founder of Ethereum, the CEO of Loopring, the CEO of Quantum, the CEO of Celsius, and the CEO of Polymath. The progress being made is significant and the leaders are aggressively developing their technologies and are partnering with many industry participants.

I am most excited by Binance. Binance or BNB is the largest centralized exchange and the most engaged with the community. Their reinvestment in their business is dramatic. They have now launched a decentralized exchange, a blockchain incubator, and a charitable foundation to help the economies in Africa (you should listen to the Binance podcast with Helen Hai, it is inspiring)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3n2Z8K8qZ4

The BNB token price is now at $29 per token, giving BNB a market capitalization of $4.2 Billion. It has increased in value by over 400% this year. To give you an idea of how this enterprise operates, two weeks ago the centralized BNB exchange was hacked for $40 million of Bitcoin. The cause was due to token holders not protecting their passwords and enabling criminals to access their accounts. In response, BNB has redesigned their controls against hackers and have made all affected accounts whole by covering their losses. The behavior of BNB management is the best in the industry. A personal letter from the CEO, “CZ”, provided a recap of the event and the actions and decisions made during the period of the Hack (I have posted it on the website for readers to access under Market Reports and Charts). The letter conveys the deep sense of community and care behind the actions taken by the BNB team. I am proud to be a part of the community that supports Binance.

Bitcoin is presently at $8,000 per coin. I expect it to challenge $20,000 before 2019 is over. Microsoft is now building a decentralized platform based on the Bitcoin blockchain. The level of adoption of the value quality and free movement of BTC across borders in near instantaneous transactions (when compared to the multiple days delay in the traditional banking system) is creating a tidal wave of adoption in the Blockchain world.

Ethereum has risen by roughly 80% so far this year. It is the platform of choice for businesses who want to build a smart contract system within their enterprise solutions. JPMorgan has adopted the Ethereum blockchain in their launch of the JP Morgan coin.

Zilliqa is a blockchain that just proved the value proposition of blockchain within industry. In Asia they partnered with WPP and Pepsi and ran a marketing campaign on their blockchain vs a traditional campaign. The blockchain campaign yielded a 28% better reach with consumers than the traditional methodology that is negatively impacted by BOTS and other false click-throughs that defeat the effectiveness of digital marketing.

DAI, is a stable coin that is matched to be equal to the US Dollar. Deposits of DAI are paying anywhere between 7% and 14% on your deposits. It is a vehicle to move fiat currency (Cash) into crypto to capture returns that are not available in the traditional banking world.

Polymath has brought in a professional CEO to run the business. I listened to him this past week and it is clear that the Polymath vision is now honed and the business is prepared to make significant progress in the Security Token industry. They have partnered with one of the founders of Ethereum, and are building a Security Exchange protocol called PolyMesh. The software platform will enable other enterprises to develop security token initiatives as well as serve as an investment bank type advisor to businesses that wish to register their tokens for public offerings of securities. Imagine the average person now being able to buy 1/1000 of a share of Amazon or Google or any other stock, bond, piece of art, real estate, etc. It is happening.

I recently purchased the HTC Exodus mobile phone. It was the first blockchain enabled phone and was soon followed by the launch of the Samsung S10, the second blockchain enabled phone. This past week, HTC announced they have partnered with Kyber Network (“KNC”) to enable token swaps on the Exodus phone through the KNC platform which gives investors the ability to move value from one blockchain enterprise to another. I used this new platform on my phone and easily exchanged Ethereum tokens for KNC tokens and for Polymath tokens. It was simple, fast and secure. The speed of adoption in the mobile phone sector is accelerating. Apple must follow this trend from a competitive perspective.

Amazon has just filed a patent for a proof of work blockchain platform.

Facebook is expected to issue its own token (an assumed stable coin) on the WhatsApp service. Additional collaborations are being hinted at to enable permissioned activity to off-ramp to public blockchains.

Jaguar Land Rover just announced it is partnering with IOTA, the internet of things peer-to-peer service for rewards that incentivize its car owners to provide data on their driving patterns. The ability to pay tolls or simply bank the token rewards for intelligence generated by your own behavior is a key return of control to the owner of the data. The benefit to future driverless car technology is a key component of interest in this initiative.

There is so much more I could write, but you get the picture. The under-the-covers adoption and build-out of the crypto-sector is moving rapidly, unnoticed by so many, yet the investing opportunity will be coming to every neighborhood. Wall Street brokerage firms are launching crypto-trading solutions, and the appetite in this area will only grow, ultimately causing institutions to allocate foundation funds, pension funds, insurance funds, etc to this emerging successful sector.

The China/Asia based platforms that are trailing from a price appreciation perspective will one day be a source of great opportunity. I met with Loopring, QTUM, and listened to Ontology and NEO. They are building fast, and when Chinese investors get government approval to invest in Blockchain businesses the market there will move higher very fast. It must be noted that China has the greatest number of patents and has made the largest financial investment in Blockchain technology. I believe it is only a matter of time before we are rewarded for our patience with these investments.

That about covers it. Learn and build on your understanding in this sector as it just may change the world.

Tom

An Important Day for BTC as it joins ETH and LTC

An Important Day for BTC as it joins ETH and LTC

For the first time in a year, the price of BTC has positively crossed two important technical hurdles. On April 2, 2019 the closing price of BTC exceeded its 200-day MVA. This was preceded by LTC and ETH doing the same (LTC began the recovery process crossing its 200-day MVA back on February 18, 2019). The second important positive cross is occurring today, as the 50-day MVA price of BTC has just exceeded the 200-day MVA price. This is called the golden-cross, as it portends higher prices in the future.

Beyond, these “Big Three”, the overall constructive price performance over the past eight weeks of the general crypto-market is even more positive. The percentage price increase of Alt-tokens in the market is higher than the price rise in BTC, ETH, and LTC. Add in higher volumes, and the crypto-market is behaving in a very constructive manner, as accumulation is once again rising.

Best,

Tom

Bitcoin

Ethereum

LiteCoin

Update on Emerging Blockchain Platforms

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market, and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.

Update on Emerging Blockchain Platforms

The infrastructure build within the Blockchain world is young and filled with new ideas. Some of the entrepreneurs will fail but some will succeed and become the next Google, or Facebook, or Microsoft.

As I research and seek out the winners that lay among the ideas that will never mature, my enthusiasm and belief in the Blockchain technology platform only grows. There are real winners emerging.

Currently there are six newly added enterprises that I find compelling. They are:

1. Blockstack
2. Quant
3. Tomo
4. ChainLink
5. Enjin
6. Celsius

Blockstack

will be the first SEC approved security token. It has filed a $50 million Registration Statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell security tokens to the public. Their founders include PHDs from Princeton University, and they have developed, with $50 million of backing from Venture Capital entities, a comprehensive blockchain platform and web browser that supports contracts and an array of decentralized APPS (applications) that are business and consumer focused.

QUANT

is UK based. Their management team are technologists from the computer security world. They have developed a software licensing platform for business that enables businesses on one blockchain platform to migrate to another blockchain with ease and simplicity. They have designed their platform with banking and oil & gas corporate clients as initial targets.

TOMO

is a Singapore based blockchain. They have an inter-operable platform across blockchains with a focus on the gaming industry and decentralized APPS. They utilize a 150 Node platform in a proof of voting stake environment. Staking rewards on an annual basis exceed 10%.

ChainLink

is based out of the Grand Cayman Islands. It has a close connection to Cornell University. Contracts within the blockchain world need to validate that conditions are met to execute the provisions of the contract. ChainLink provides the bridge to data resources that reside outside the blockchain that are critical verification sources. Think of a music sale that triggers within a smart contract payment to all parties at time of sale (artist, writer, producer, etc). This smart contract must link to a validated external source to verify the sale took place. ChainLink provides that connection.

ENJIN

is a South Korean based company. They are part of the new Samsung S10 phone release, providing a game based blockchain platform for mobile gaming. ENJIN’s game platform has over 20 million users.

Celsius

is a UK based company. Their co-founder developed Voice over Internet Protocol in the 1990s, and has now built the platform to move money over the internet instantaneously through a banking platform for crypto-assets. They accept crypto-deposits and pay interest on those deposits, and they make loans in both crypto and fiat currencies.

Bitcoin price and the 200 Day Moving Average

Over the last 4 days the BTC closing price has exceeded the 200 day MVA for the first time in a year. The MVA price is $4,598 which is now support for the current price. Next stop is the cross of 50 day MVA over 200 day MVA. They are $600 apart with the 50 Day trending up, having closed the gap that existed in June 2018 of $2,500. Step one is done, with the current price above the 200 day MVA. Now we anticipate the 50 and 200 Day cross. Strength begets Strength.

Bitcoin

LiteCoin and Ethereum Price and Volume strength

This week, as of Thursday 11:00 AM EST, has seen a significant increase in crypto-assets, including currencies and blockchain platforms. The combination of double digit price increases with very high volume represents a strong positive for the market, as the movement reflects strength and a deepening participation in ownership. I have previously noted that the strength in LiteCoin was something to watch closely. It led the market as the first CC to have its daily price cross the 200 Day Moving Average of Price (this occurred on February 18, 2019). It continued to strengthen as I added to my position, anticipating it would continue to rise and challenge the the cross-over point where the 50 Day Moving Average of Price would cross and move above the 200 Day Moving Average. The cross occurred on March 16, 2019 at a LiteCoin price of $58.13 per coin. Today the price of LiteCoin is $86.33.

The current charts of LiteCoin and Ethereum are below. It is time to pay close attention to Ethereum. On April 2,2019 its closing price exceeded the 200 Day Moving Average at a price of $141. Today its price is $161.29. It is tracking toward the cross-over of the 50 day and 200 day MVAs. The spread between the two moving averages is currently $13.42. I expect ETH to move higher to challenge that cross-over point. If it breaks above that point, it will likely continue to advance on strength.

LiteCoin

Ethereum

The three charts of Price movement: Bitcoin, Ether, and LiteCoin

The change in price over time of any asset provides insight. In periods of quiet accumulation we see less spikes higher and a more steady pace of modest price rises. BTC, ETH, and LTC are all displaying this type of price movement. Of particular note in this phase of price discovery is the current price trend vs the 200 Day Moving Average of price, and the pattern of the 50 Day MVA vs the 200 Day MVA. As you can see with LTC, the current price went above the 200 Day MVA back on February 18, 2019. This presaged a confirming move of the 50 Day MVA exceeding the 200 Day MVA on March 16, 2019. The underlying environment of gradual and steady price increases is not confined to LTC as the other charts show. Should ETH and BTC continue on their gradual and steady price increases that lead to current prices above the 200 Day MVA (ETH is very close to this cross-over point), further accumulation at higher prices would seem likely.

LiteCoin

Ether

Bitcoin

Three Crypto Investment Lists: The Favorite Ideas, The Favorite Builders, and The High Risk/Reward Gambles

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market, and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.

 

The Favorite Ideas

 

Set forth below are my top ten Favorite Ideas for investment consideration based on the companies actual performance to date and the meaningfulness and achievability of their stated goals and objectives:

1. Binance
2. Quant
3. ChainLink
4. Bitcoin
5. Ethereum
6. LiteCoin
7. Ontology
8. ENJIN
9. Celsius
10. Kyber Network

I highly recommend that these business platforms be researched to assess whether they fit within your own personal view of the future. I am happy to respond to any direct questions from readers as to why I view any of the above as My Favorite Ideas.

 

The Favorite Builders

 

Set forth below are my top ten Favorite Builders for investment consideration based on the need for their platform and the growth in delivering their solutions:

1. Bitcoin
2. Ethereum
3. Litecoin
4. Binance
5. NEO
6. Ontology
7. ChainLink
8. Celsius
9. 0X
10. Basic Attention Token

I highly recommend that these business platforms be researched to assess whether they fit within your own personal view of the future. I am happy to respond to any direct questions from readers as to why I view any of the above as My Favorite Builders.

 

The High Risk/Reward Gambles

 

Set forth below are my top ten Favorite High Risk/Reward Gambles for investment consideration. These entities and platforms are listed here based on their actual performance to date and the meaningfulness and achievability of their stated goals and objectives:

1. LYMPO
2. PolyMath
3. Morpheus
4. PlayChip
5. Deep Brain Chain
6. The Key
7. Augur
8. Tomo Chain
9. Loom
10. Travala

I highly recommend that these business platforms be researched to assess whether they fit within your own personal view of the future. I am happy to respond to any direct questions from readers as to why I view any of the above as being worthy of further research and understanding.

Tom