Month: November 2025

Utilizing the past has proven to be wise. The phrase, history does not repeat itself but it often rhymes, is the basis of my understanding of investing. Two charts are before you:

1) Historic pattern of crypto market capitalization and movements from each four year halving is educational. The pattern is an important tool.
2) After a turbulent decline in crypto in the second half of 2025, the current move from a support point should not be ignored.

I read the below letter on “X” as posted by the Kobeissi Letter. I responded and have included my response at the bottom of this document.

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter

The US’ goods trade deficit narrowed +$18.6 billion, or +24%, in August, to -$59.6 billion, one of the largest monthly improvements this year. Imports declined -5%, to $340.4 billion, the 2nd-lowest since May 2024. This also marks the biggest drop in imports in 4 months. At the same time, exports rose slightly, to $280.8 billion, the highest since April. Since March 2025, the goods trade deficit has improved by +$76.8 billion, or +56%. Adjusted for inflation, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to -$83.7 billion in August, the lowest since the end of 2023. Tariffs are reshaping the US trade.

My Response and evolving view of our future:

Why would you not add to this piece that advance ordering of foreign goods to get pre-tariff prices exploded the trade imbalance? AND now, ordering of foreign goods has fallen off a cliff because there is no need to order for tomorrow when you overstocked in advance of the tariff policy?
You should have been critical of the extreme variations from month-to-month. You should have noted that the economy is and will slow as the shipping, port, rail and trucking industries experience a forced recession.
Connect the dots.

At the moment, the Old World is in economic trouble.

We need an offset, and that is:

AI cannot come fast enough! It will feed the boom in technology investments that need to be made to service the data center demand, and then the renovation and growth in infrastructure investments (power), and then to every industry thereafter.

TJC