Hold, Hold, Hold……….

As a believer in the future of blockchain technology and the need for a global currency I remain committed to this sector. For those that ask why, I offer something I wrote a few years ago:

“In 2008 and 2009, as the financial and banking world was thrown from side to side in a world of uncertainty, I recall some of the most respected people, individuals of great intellect, leaders, those that saw the world through logic that was without panic or undue fear, talking about what we needed to right the ship. Their comments were not about remedies borne from Central Banks pumping liquidity into the system, buying bad debts from banks and other financial entities, and funding government obligations to suppress interest rates. They spoke of the need for technology to emerge, to once again bring about innovation that would change the dynamics of our economies, that would ignite new growth, that would raise the standard of living for a global population, and, in their words, instill the confidence that humankind, that human curiosity, would be the engine that would bring stability, promise, optimism, economic and social growth to a wounded world. I embraced those words, not knowing what the next chapters would bring, but believing that there would be a better tomorrow that was not cobbled together with band-aids and unsustainable one-off remedies. Why were those words so memorable for me? History. History provides the backbone needed to understand and to believe, and it is history that raised those words, those ideas, to the forefront of my mind.

Assembly lines, motorized vehicles, the railroad, the internet, fracking, electricity, the steam engine, the printing press, the telephone, the computer, air travel and the airplane, are all discoveries, forms of innovation, ideas that changed the world. The Blockchain may be, in the context of making new history, the development we write about in the future that freed commerce, that connected economies throughout the world in ways that were never thought possible, that brought the unbanked population into the world of innovation and participation, that took the internet to a new level of integration in life that empowered the individual. I am betting that we are possibly at a junction that strikes fear into the mainstream, those that rely on the comfortable way of doing things, while emboldening those that are explorers and entrepreneurs with the promise of success borne from ideas that feel boundless. The next chapters in time will be driven by the Blockchain and all its implications as it joins with the Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence, Contract Law, Foreign Exchange, Banking, Commerce, and the fundamental engagement by people in all aspects of being connected together for progress and a better existence than we have known to date.

That is what history tell us. New ideas, birthed from existing practices and understanding, seen through a different lens, changes the path we are on. Progress and the human mind are intertwined, and that is why the global engagement around the Blockchain and the emergent forms of new means of exchange between people are being driven today by the grass roots which embrace progress as the most exciting form of life. There is a growing voice backed by empowering new technology which is changing the world, adding to history, as we try to understand the possibilities of becoming unencumbered by the myriad of middle-men and regulation that stifle economic and social growth. Are you ready for this new adventure, this new chapter? It is scary and exciting, but it is one change I do not want to miss!”

I wrote the above to share with everyone what I feel about the potential promise of the next iteration of the internet, moving from a social/news/commerce communication platform to an empowerment and value platform. While I am no less optimistic about what I see occurring, the Headline above of Hold, Hold, Hold….is meant to indicate that the available data tells me that I should not invest more at this time in Crypto-assets until further signs emerge of greater participation by the people of the world. This is not because of a diminution in my belief of the value that is to be created here, but is about the data informing me of the current market state, a state that reflects strong building underneath but weak participation of the world’s people in owning/using crypto-assets. Growth is present, but it is not viral growth that reveals mass interest and adoption. The price swings are still significant, the volume of crypto-currencies that move each day is static over the longer-term, and the political and financial institutional resistance remains high. Patience is the keyword, along with Hold, Hold, Hold.

In the menu section of Charts, you will find the latest data on volume and price as of October 4, 2019. I hope they are informative to you and help you in the decisions you may make.

Wishing you all the best,

Tom

The named entities or Blockchains set forth above/below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.  Charts of technical price levels and movements are presented to educate those unfamiliar with price patterns.  These examples of real price activity show how prior price levels may be used to identify market points of price resistance or support. Use this information as you see fit, but it is recommended that you see this as an educational/informative tool only. This information is only part of the array of focus areas needed in making any investment decision, accordingly, it is best to not rely on one type of analysis for your capital allocation decisions.

Keep your buying power ready

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.  Charts of technical price levels and movements are presented to educate those unfamiliar with price patterns.  These examples of real price activity show how prior price levels may be used to identify market points of price resistance or support. Use this information as you see fit, but it is recommended that you see this as an educational/informative tool only. This information is only part of the array of focus areas needed in making any investment decision, accordingly, it is best to not rely on one type of analysis for your capital allocation decisions.

The market will tell us when to invest

As I noted, the compression of pricing and the decline in volatility were at points that strongly indicated a breakout in prices was imminent. The move could have been higher or lower, but regardless of direction, it was going to be meaningful. My initial observation that BTC had established a new bottom at the $9,000 level was proven wrong.

Well now we know which way the price move took: the break was lower.

This makes sense given the launch of BAKKT futures this week. The weeks leading up to this were characterized by low volume and steady to lower prices. The action of accumulation in anticipation of the BAKKT launch was missing, and this was an indication that institutional demand pre-launch was lacking. The small number of Bitcoin futures that traded on opening day was a disappointment to the market, and the ensuing price declines reflected that disappointment.

What now?

Keep your powder dry. Let the selling exhaust itself. The large volume traded on September 24, 2019 of the crypto-currencies was not record setting, but was meaningful compared to the volumes during the prior time of July through mid-September. Once the dust settles, and there is price and volume stability or a reversal to the upside in price accompanied by volumes greater than the 30 and 60 day averages, then we should consider scaling into new long positions. This will mitigate risk at the cost of missing the early part of the price rise, but in the long-run will serve us well in letting the market confirm price direction on which we may ride the coattails to increasing wealth.

Yesterday, for many, likely felt like my daughter did in this video.

IMG_1202

Bitcoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin appear ready to move out of their range bound pricing

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.  Charts of technical price levels and movements are presented to educate those unfamiliar with price patterns.  These examples of real price activity show how prior price levels may be used to identify market points of price resistance or support. Use this information as you see fit, but it is recommended that you see this as an educational/informative tool only. This information is only part of the array of focus areas needed in making any investment decision, accordingly, it is best to not rely on one type of analysis for your capital allocation decisions.

The coiled spring

My interpretation of the data for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin leads me to believe that we are very close to a significant price move. As a bit of background, I love to analyze things, whether it is life, human behavior, a chess board, stocks, or crypto-assets, I take great pleasure in thinking deeply and finding solutions that make the puzzles of my life sensible and enjoyable.

Watching the behavior of the Crypto-currencies in the context of their aggressive move higher in price during May through June of this year, followed by a decline and a leveling off during July through September, the time appears to be at hand where a new base has been laid from which the next period of growth may be at hand.

Bitcoin is now at a point where it is range bound between $9,500 and $10,500. The interesting thing about this is that the volume of Bitcoin traded has reached a relatively low level, a level that coincided with the December 15, 2018 closing price low of $3,183, yet we are trading within a band that is three times higher in price than that December low. The market is telling us that the base price is now reset to this range of $9,000 to $11,000. The move away from this will occur at higher volume and I believe at higher price points vs lower price points. The chart of this price and volume comparison appears as follows:

Bitcoin Price and Volume Chart

BTC, ETH and LTC at a crossroads

Price, Volume, Market Value and Volatility point to a significant move

Below are three charts that are telling a similar story. Before I go there, it is very interesting to find that the combined Market Value of BTC, ETH, and LTC as of September 6, 2019 is roughly equivalent to the mkt value on November 28, 2017 ($216 billion and $215 billion, respectively). If you remember, on that date in 2017 BTC was at $9,949, ready to move to almost $20,000 over the next month. Be ready for a breakout.

The three charts show:

1) A decline in volatility to a point that historically has preceded subsequent large price moves.

2) In a continuing uptrend, the Bitcoin price is at a low point when compared to the 200 Day Moving Average Price.

3) The 10 day Average Bitcoin Price and Volume for Bitcoin show a continuing uptrend during this current basing period.

BTC, ETH,and LTC Volatility under 2%

BTC Price vs 200 Day Moving Average

Ten day Average Price and Volume for Bitcoin

BTC and ETH price declines a lack of buyers with few sellers?

For BTC and ETH pay attention to price and volume

The BTC price has been falling for 30 days (with BTC avg daily vol on Coinbase =15,600 and an avg price of $10,500 ) . Prior to that the price was rising for the preceding 30 days (with BTC avg DV on Coinbase = 27,312 and avg price of $11,000). Same observation for ETH. Implication is that the recent weakness in prices is more of buyers on the sidelines while a small group of sellers have to raise fiat (maybe those facing margin calls on both equities and crypto needing liquidity to meet the MC).

We are on the cusp of accelerated Blockchain growth and adoption by industries and consumers

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market, and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.

May 20, 2019

Dear Crypto enthusiast and/or curious mind:

Right now is the most exciting time for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Blockchain based businesses. The market is expanding with established corporations joining the start-ups and early believers. I am as enthusiastic as I have ever been. I truly believe we are on the cusp of a rapid expansion of participants and education within the Blockchain sphere.

Over the past eight weeks I have heard speak or met with the co-founder of Ethereum, the CEO of Loopring, the CEO of Quantum, the CEO of Celsius, and the CEO of Polymath. The progress being made is significant and the leaders are aggressively developing their technologies and are partnering with many industry participants.

I am most excited by Binance. Binance or BNB is the largest centralized exchange and the most engaged with the community. Their reinvestment in their business is dramatic. They have now launched a decentralized exchange, a blockchain incubator, and a charitable foundation to help the economies in Africa (you should listen to the Binance podcast with Helen Hai, it is inspiring)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3n2Z8K8qZ4

The BNB token price is now at $29 per token, giving BNB a market capitalization of $4.2 Billion. It has increased in value by over 400% this year. To give you an idea of how this enterprise operates, two weeks ago the centralized BNB exchange was hacked for $40 million of Bitcoin. The cause was due to token holders not protecting their passwords and enabling criminals to access their accounts. In response, BNB has redesigned their controls against hackers and have made all affected accounts whole by covering their losses. The behavior of BNB management is the best in the industry. A personal letter from the CEO, “CZ”, provided a recap of the event and the actions and decisions made during the period of the Hack (I have posted it on the website for readers to access under Market Reports and Charts). The letter conveys the deep sense of community and care behind the actions taken by the BNB team. I am proud to be a part of the community that supports Binance.

Bitcoin is presently at $8,000 per coin. I expect it to challenge $20,000 before 2019 is over. Microsoft is now building a decentralized platform based on the Bitcoin blockchain. The level of adoption of the value quality and free movement of BTC across borders in near instantaneous transactions (when compared to the multiple days delay in the traditional banking system) is creating a tidal wave of adoption in the Blockchain world.

Ethereum has risen by roughly 80% so far this year. It is the platform of choice for businesses who want to build a smart contract system within their enterprise solutions. JPMorgan has adopted the Ethereum blockchain in their launch of the JP Morgan coin.

Zilliqa is a blockchain that just proved the value proposition of blockchain within industry. In Asia they partnered with WPP and Pepsi and ran a marketing campaign on their blockchain vs a traditional campaign. The blockchain campaign yielded a 28% better reach with consumers than the traditional methodology that is negatively impacted by BOTS and other false click-throughs that defeat the effectiveness of digital marketing.

DAI, is a stable coin that is matched to be equal to the US Dollar. Deposits of DAI are paying anywhere between 7% and 14% on your deposits. It is a vehicle to move fiat currency (Cash) into crypto to capture returns that are not available in the traditional banking world.

Polymath has brought in a professional CEO to run the business. I listened to him this past week and it is clear that the Polymath vision is now honed and the business is prepared to make significant progress in the Security Token industry. They have partnered with one of the founders of Ethereum, and are building a Security Exchange protocol called PolyMesh. The software platform will enable other enterprises to develop security token initiatives as well as serve as an investment bank type advisor to businesses that wish to register their tokens for public offerings of securities. Imagine the average person now being able to buy 1/1000 of a share of Amazon or Google or any other stock, bond, piece of art, real estate, etc. It is happening.

I recently purchased the HTC Exodus mobile phone. It was the first blockchain enabled phone and was soon followed by the launch of the Samsung S10, the second blockchain enabled phone. This past week, HTC announced they have partnered with Kyber Network (“KNC”) to enable token swaps on the Exodus phone through the KNC platform which gives investors the ability to move value from one blockchain enterprise to another. I used this new platform on my phone and easily exchanged Ethereum tokens for KNC tokens and for Polymath tokens. It was simple, fast and secure. The speed of adoption in the mobile phone sector is accelerating. Apple must follow this trend from a competitive perspective.

Amazon has just filed a patent for a proof of work blockchain platform.

Facebook is expected to issue its own token (an assumed stable coin) on the WhatsApp service. Additional collaborations are being hinted at to enable permissioned activity to off-ramp to public blockchains.

Jaguar Land Rover just announced it is partnering with IOTA, the internet of things peer-to-peer service for rewards that incentivize its car owners to provide data on their driving patterns. The ability to pay tolls or simply bank the token rewards for intelligence generated by your own behavior is a key return of control to the owner of the data. The benefit to future driverless car technology is a key component of interest in this initiative.

There is so much more I could write, but you get the picture. The under-the-covers adoption and build-out of the crypto-sector is moving rapidly, unnoticed by so many, yet the investing opportunity will be coming to every neighborhood. Wall Street brokerage firms are launching crypto-trading solutions, and the appetite in this area will only grow, ultimately causing institutions to allocate foundation funds, pension funds, insurance funds, etc to this emerging successful sector.

The China/Asia based platforms that are trailing from a price appreciation perspective will one day be a source of great opportunity. I met with Loopring, QTUM, and listened to Ontology and NEO. They are building fast, and when Chinese investors get government approval to invest in Blockchain businesses the market there will move higher very fast. It must be noted that China has the greatest number of patents and has made the largest financial investment in Blockchain technology. I believe it is only a matter of time before we are rewarded for our patience with these investments.

That about covers it. Learn and build on your understanding in this sector as it just may change the world.

Tom

An Important Day for BTC as it joins ETH and LTC

An Important Day for BTC as it joins ETH and LTC

For the first time in a year, the price of BTC has positively crossed two important technical hurdles. On April 2, 2019 the closing price of BTC exceeded its 200-day MVA. This was preceded by LTC and ETH doing the same (LTC began the recovery process crossing its 200-day MVA back on February 18, 2019). The second important positive cross is occurring today, as the 50-day MVA price of BTC has just exceeded the 200-day MVA price. This is called the golden-cross, as it portends higher prices in the future.

Beyond, these “Big Three”, the overall constructive price performance over the past eight weeks of the general crypto-market is even more positive. The percentage price increase of Alt-tokens in the market is higher than the price rise in BTC, ETH, and LTC. Add in higher volumes, and the crypto-market is behaving in a very constructive manner, as accumulation is once again rising.

Best,

Tom

Bitcoin

Ethereum

LiteCoin

Update on Emerging Blockchain Platforms

The named entities or Blockchains set forth below do not represent recommendations to purchase or in any way reflect investment advice. One of the key variables that is critical for deciding to invest is missing. That variable is the current valuation of each token or asset vs the overall market, and a reasoned forecast of future performance vs the market. What is presented below attempts to inform and to encourage research, to learn about each, and to come to an opinion of whether any of them or all of them strike you as being an important participant in the future development of digital asset platforms.

Update on Emerging Blockchain Platforms

The infrastructure build within the Blockchain world is young and filled with new ideas. Some of the entrepreneurs will fail but some will succeed and become the next Google, or Facebook, or Microsoft.

As I research and seek out the winners that lay among the ideas that will never mature, my enthusiasm and belief in the Blockchain technology platform only grows. There are real winners emerging.

Currently there are six newly added enterprises that I find compelling. They are:

1. Blockstack
2. Quant
3. Tomo
4. ChainLink
5. Enjin
6. Celsius

Blockstack

will be the first SEC approved security token. It has filed a $50 million Registration Statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell security tokens to the public. Their founders include PHDs from Princeton University, and they have developed, with $50 million of backing from Venture Capital entities, a comprehensive blockchain platform and web browser that supports contracts and an array of decentralized APPS (applications) that are business and consumer focused.

QUANT

is UK based. Their management team are technologists from the computer security world. They have developed a software licensing platform for business that enables businesses on one blockchain platform to migrate to another blockchain with ease and simplicity. They have designed their platform with banking and oil & gas corporate clients as initial targets.

TOMO

is a Singapore based blockchain. They have an inter-operable platform across blockchains with a focus on the gaming industry and decentralized APPS. They utilize a 150 Node platform in a proof of voting stake environment. Staking rewards on an annual basis exceed 10%.

ChainLink

is based out of the Grand Cayman Islands. It has a close connection to Cornell University. Contracts within the blockchain world need to validate that conditions are met to execute the provisions of the contract. ChainLink provides the bridge to data resources that reside outside the blockchain that are critical verification sources. Think of a music sale that triggers within a smart contract payment to all parties at time of sale (artist, writer, producer, etc). This smart contract must link to a validated external source to verify the sale took place. ChainLink provides that connection.

ENJIN

is a South Korean based company. They are part of the new Samsung S10 phone release, providing a game based blockchain platform for mobile gaming. ENJIN’s game platform has over 20 million users.

Celsius

is a UK based company. Their co-founder developed Voice over Internet Protocol in the 1990s, and has now built the platform to move money over the internet instantaneously through a banking platform for crypto-assets. They accept crypto-deposits and pay interest on those deposits, and they make loans in both crypto and fiat currencies.

Bitcoin price and the 200 Day Moving Average

Over the last 4 days the BTC closing price has exceeded the 200 day MVA for the first time in a year. The MVA price is $4,598 which is now support for the current price. Next stop is the cross of 50 day MVA over 200 day MVA. They are $600 apart with the 50 Day trending up, having closed the gap that existed in June 2018 of $2,500. Step one is done, with the current price above the 200 day MVA. Now we anticipate the 50 and 200 Day cross. Strength begets Strength.

Bitcoin

LiteCoin and Ethereum Price and Volume strength

This week, as of Thursday 11:00 AM EST, has seen a significant increase in crypto-assets, including currencies and blockchain platforms. The combination of double digit price increases with very high volume represents a strong positive for the market, as the movement reflects strength and a deepening participation in ownership. I have previously noted that the strength in LiteCoin was something to watch closely. It led the market as the first CC to have its daily price cross the 200 Day Moving Average of Price (this occurred on February 18, 2019). It continued to strengthen as I added to my position, anticipating it would continue to rise and challenge the the cross-over point where the 50 Day Moving Average of Price would cross and move above the 200 Day Moving Average. The cross occurred on March 16, 2019 at a LiteCoin price of $58.13 per coin. Today the price of LiteCoin is $86.33.

The current charts of LiteCoin and Ethereum are below. It is time to pay close attention to Ethereum. On April 2,2019 its closing price exceeded the 200 Day Moving Average at a price of $141. Today its price is $161.29. It is tracking toward the cross-over of the 50 day and 200 day MVAs. The spread between the two moving averages is currently $13.42. I expect ETH to move higher to challenge that cross-over point. If it breaks above that point, it will likely continue to advance on strength.

LiteCoin

Ethereum