Author: Thomas Connolly

Picking a bottom or a top is typically a fools game. Best to wait for confirmation that the move off of a low or high point is more than noise. The most recent chart of a potential bottom forming is not for the timid. High risk and reward are at play right now. Be careful.

I posed the above question to ChatGPT. This was the response:

“Are Stable coins a threat to the Bitcoin ?
Short answer: no—stablecoins are not a fundamental threat to Bitcoin, but they do change how Bitcoin is used in the broader crypto ecosystem.
Here’s the clear breakdown.
________________________________________
1. Bitcoin and stablecoins solve different problems
Bitcoin
• Store of value (“digital gold”)
• Censorship-resistant, decentralized, fixed supply (21M)
• Optimized for long-term savings and settlement, not daily pricing stability
Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, PYUSD, etc.)
• Price stability (usually pegged to USD)
• Medium of exchange and unit of account
• Optimized for payments, trading, and liquidity
👉 Because they serve different economic roles, stablecoins don’t directly replace Bitcoin.
________________________________________
2. Stablecoins actually support Bitcoin demand
In practice, stablecoins:
• Are the primary on-ramps and off-ramps into Bitcoin
• Provide liquidity on exchanges for BTC trading
• Reduce friction for global users who can’t access USD banking easily
Most Bitcoin buying globally looks like:
Local currency → stablecoin → Bitcoin
Without stablecoins, Bitcoin adoption would be harder, not easier.
________________________________________
3. Where stablecoins do compete with Bitcoin
There is competition in one narrow area:
Medium of exchange
• Stablecoins are better for:
o Pricing goods
o Payroll
o Remittances where volatility is unacceptable
This means:
• Bitcoin is less likely to be used as everyday spending money
• But that trend already existed long before stablecoins
Bitcoin has largely won the “store of value” narrative, not payments.
________________________________________
4. Key difference: trust vs. sovereignty
This is where Bitcoin remains unique.
Stablecoins require trust
• Issuers can:
o Freeze funds
o Blacklist addresses
o Be regulated, seized, or shut down
• Backing depends on:
o Banks
o Treasuries
o Governments
Bitcoin does not
• No issuer
• No counterparty risk
• No permission required
• Works even if issuers, banks, or governments fail
In times of:
• Capital controls
• Sanctions
• Banking crises
• Sovereign debt stress
👉 Bitcoin demand increases, stablecoins become riskier.
________________________________________
5. Regulation may strengthen Bitcoin relative to stablecoins
Governments are increasingly:
• Regulating stablecoin issuers
• Requiring KYC, reserve disclosures, and compliance
• Potentially favoring bank-issued or CBDC-like stablecoins
This could make stablecoins:
• Less neutral
• Less global
• Less censorship-resistant
Bitcoin remains regulation-agnostic at the protocol level.
________________________________________
6. The likely long-term outcome
Instead of “stablecoins vs Bitcoin,” the future looks like:
• Stablecoins → money for spending, trading, payments
• Bitcoin → money for saving, settlement, and sovereignty
They are complementary, not adversarial.
________________________________________
Bottom line
Stablecoins are not a threat to Bitcoin’s core value proposition.
They may reduce Bitcoin’s use as daily cash, but they reinforce Bitcoin’s role as digital gold and monetary insurance.
If you want, I can also:
• Compare Bitcoin vs stablecoins in a financial crisis
• Explain what happens if a major stablecoin fails
• Analyze whether CBDCs are a bigger threat than stablecoins”

In two of my prior posts I showed the crypto market capitalization re-testing a bottom and then begin the turn north. That appears to be holding as a valuable entry point into this market.

Subsequent event:

The close I use is 7:00 PM EST. The market pulled back and we did not hold onto the new higher high. Be careful and watch the FED decision tomorrow on interest rates as it will cause a reaction. Closing above $3.325 trillion will set a new high for this cycle.

Below is a post with the heading “Economic Spin vs Reality” where I sought clarity on the trade deficit movements and offered my opinion on the topic. Today, the Kobeissi letter addressed trucking and captures the point I made.

Utilizing the past has proven to be wise. The phrase, history does not repeat itself but it often rhymes, is the basis of my understanding of investing. Two charts are before you:

1) Historic pattern of crypto market capitalization and movements from each four year halving is educational. The pattern is an important tool.
2) After a turbulent decline in crypto in the second half of 2025, the current move from a support point should not be ignored.

I read the below letter on “X” as posted by the Kobeissi Letter. I responded and have included my response at the bottom of this document.

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter

The US’ goods trade deficit narrowed +$18.6 billion, or +24%, in August, to -$59.6 billion, one of the largest monthly improvements this year. Imports declined -5%, to $340.4 billion, the 2nd-lowest since May 2024. This also marks the biggest drop in imports in 4 months. At the same time, exports rose slightly, to $280.8 billion, the highest since April. Since March 2025, the goods trade deficit has improved by +$76.8 billion, or +56%. Adjusted for inflation, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to -$83.7 billion in August, the lowest since the end of 2023. Tariffs are reshaping the US trade.

My Response and evolving view of our future:

Why would you not add to this piece that advance ordering of foreign goods to get pre-tariff prices exploded the trade imbalance? AND now, ordering of foreign goods has fallen off a cliff because there is no need to order for tomorrow when you overstocked in advance of the tariff policy?
You should have been critical of the extreme variations from month-to-month. You should have noted that the economy is and will slow as the shipping, port, rail and trucking industries experience a forced recession.
Connect the dots.

At the moment, the Old World is in economic trouble.

We need an offset, and that is:

AI cannot come fast enough! It will feed the boom in technology investments that need to be made to service the data center demand, and then the renovation and growth in infrastructure investments (power), and then to every industry thereafter.

TJC

To view this in a larger print format, download the PDF and zoom into the PDF document.

Note: Material differences of % changes of price vs Mkt cap are signals to dig deeper into why the difference exists. One cause may be the issuance of more tokens which may restrain price changes even though the Market Cap moves higher.

Crypto Prices February 2024

What impact on the Crypto Market Value may the 2024 BTC Halving have based on the 2020 BTC Halving impact? How does a $3.9 Trillion total MV, or a MV increase of $2.3 Trillion from the recent 2024 MV low sound? Digest this chart of the Deltas for a while.

As I have stated many times, I want my friends and family to understand what is taking place behind the scenes that the general public is not focusing on or paying attention to. Education provided by me to you, and then from you to those you know, is what kindness is all about (which makes it your job to educate others by sharing the news you access on the topic of Blockchain and the transformation of our financial infrastructure). I believe and have believed since 2015, that Blockchain technology is revolutionary, and we all should be responsible to ourselves, to our family and to our friends by being educators.

For Educational Purposes Only

As I have stated many times, I want my friends and family to understand what is taking place behind the scenes that the general public is not focusing on or paying attention to. Education provided by me to you, and then from you to those you know, is what kindness is all about (which makes it your job to educate others by sharing the news you access on the topic of Blockchain and the transformation of our financial infrastructure). I believe and have believed since 2015, that Blockchain technology is revolutionary, and we all should be responsible to ourselves, to our family and to our friends by being educators.

Please listen to the video below in its entirety. I hope it motivates you to start following news stories on this topic. That does not mean learning code or diving deep into the infrastructure. What it does require is for you to look at the world today and to imagine the benefits to the services we depend on, to the efficiencies that may be realized and to the opportunity to be a part of the journey as a participant in Blockchains earliest days of adoption.

I never give financial advice and I am not doing so now. What I do provide are the pathways to learn. I just want you to learn.

Tom

This video is critical to watch. It focuses on information that is right there in front of us but which so few people are taking advantage of. Please watch the entire video. I will give you a test later (only joking).

Video on financial industry adoption of Blockchain Technology and Public awareness
https://twitter.com/i/status/1750918014411894971

The next two links are to the company Quant’s website. I believe in Quant’s mission. Early on I saw that Quant’s business model was focused on interoperability between Blockchains. I viewed that as critical because I foresee each Central Bank in the world forming their own individual blockchains to distribute digital money within their economies in the form of Central Bank Digital Currencies (“CBDCs”). This will enable governments to continue to control and influence their economies within their borders by controlling their own money supply growth in digital form. But the governments must be able to transact between their Central Bank and the rest of the world’s many Central Banks. That is the proposition that Quant and other Blockchain technology companies are focusing on as they work with banking institutions around the world. Quant just completed their role in Project Rosalind (you should Google it). Quant worked with the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements to utilize blockchain technology for Bank-to-Bank transactions, and to coordinate transactions between the local bank and the retail consumer. This is Public Information, yet the general public is not paying attention to it.

You have a choice: Focus on becoming aware or remain unaware as most of the global citizenry is. These are still early days, but this technology is becoming pervasive in many sectors of society. You have a role to play in educating as many people as you can to give everyone the opportunity to understand this incredible transformation that is taking place right before our eyes.

Quant
https://quant.network/

Quant and the Financial Markets
https://quant.network/financial-institutions/?_gl=1*1y8j3fa*_up*MQ..*_ga*MTQ1Njc4Njk5LjE3MDY1NDY4ODc.*_ga_KEN210YEFE*MTcwNjU0Njg4NS4xLjAuMTcwNjU0Njg4NS4wLjAuMA..

With love and kindness,